Denaliguide Summit

By Denaliguide

Well now, dear ones. What I see playing out between the U.S. Treasury and China looks something like this:

“You don’t buy oil, and we won’t buy gold.”

That is my reading of the situation—a suspected arrangement, rather than a proven one. But if these pressures are weighing on your patience, fear not! I don’t believe they can last forever.

Right now, this flip-flop appears to be holding down the 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to feel the pressure of efforts to support the bond market.

My view? The bonds will be supported while pressure for a cheaper dollar continues, until we reach a burnout point. Can I predict the timing? No.

Only this I say: “It is in front of us, not behind us.”

Juniors on My Radar

Some of these juniors are in the most interesting positions I’ve seen in a while. Depending on your interests and appetite for risk, they may warrant a closer look at current levels.

Here is my watchlist, with two new additions at the end:

• Silver X Mining — AGX.V: Peru.
• Silver One — SVE.V: On my silver watchlist.
• Hercules Metals — BIG.V: It has had a big pop, but its jurisdiction remains part of the attraction for me.
• Borealis Mining — BOGO.V: It has bounced back from a heavy downward hit and is now on my hit parade of juniors with upside potential.
• Amex Exploration — AMX.V: Developing the Perron deposit in Quebec, near the Ontario border.
• Hemlo Mining — HMMC.TO: Following Barrick’s sale of Hemlo, I like what I’m seeing from the new owners.
• Talisker Resources — TSK.TO: Its work at the Bralorne complex and Mustang mine in British Columbia keeps it on my radar.

New Addition: Starr Peak Mining

Starr Peak Mining — STE.V

Part of Starr’s attraction is its acquisition, in 2020, of approximately 1,420 hectares of prospective ground adjacent to Amex’s Perron property. That is roughly 14 square kilometres, or a little more than five square miles.

The properties lie along the Normétal fault, in the area of the former Normétal mine.

But here is the punchline: relative strength.

Despite the market pressures I’ve described, Starr has not declined appreciably in the way I’ve seen many other juniors—and some majors—decline. That resilience interests me.

Promising ground is one thing. A stock holding its own under pressure is another. Together, they earn Starr a place on my list.

New Addition: Cabral Gold

Cabral Gold — CBR.V

Cabral’s reported gold pour and sale during September put it on my radar as another junior moving into production.

The stock’s trend looks steady to me, and it appears to be in reasonably good shape. I’m comfortable with its Brazilian jurisdiction, and the company continues to act like its management knows what it’s doing.

A definite pick for my watchlist.

The Timing? That’s the Hard Part.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that I have no firm handle on when this foolishness—domestic or global—might end.

I’m loath to say, “The midterm elections.” That answer is both nebulous and slippery, given how ruthlessly politicians can act and how quickly they can pull another trick.

Reports of U.S. pressure on NATO allies to commit diesel reserves to support supply only add to my frustration. Ugh!

So keep some dry powder. Stay alert. Position yourself thoughtfully.

And go fishing if that’s what it takes to keep your sanity.

About Those Gaps

Speaking of sanity—and things you might think are crazy—I’m sticking with my old axiom:

Gaps fill.

That is a conviction I use in reading charts, not a guarantee. I still expect the gap between August 29 and September 2, 2025, to fill, however briefly or swiftly.

I’ve waited years for gaps before. One dating from 2012 took roughly six years. So let this one remain an object of interest and conjecture.

Those of you who have been with me long enough may remember WHALE ISLAND: my name for that stretch when the bullish percentage of gold stocks sat at zero for 14 weeks and GDX bottomed around $12.40.

Then there was the “Straits of Hell” gap, which remained open from 2015 to 2019 before GDX vaulted into the $30s. My projected future price was $61—a summit it has since reached, by my reckoning.

That history is why I keep watching the gap around gold at $3,454.

With gold having traded down into the $3,900-and-change area, I’m not ruling out a sharp stab lower toward that gap.

Timing remains the mystery. The possibility remains on my chart.

Till then, keep your eyes open, your powder dry, and your sense of humour intact.

BEST,
DG