Denaliguide Summit

Denaliguide – May 2026

Well, another fun day, week, and month ahead of us.

“Ball of Confusion” seems like the perfect title.

Another peace plan. Another attack during negotiations. The high-tech and semiconductor sectors have gone absolutely ballistic. Some charts are beginning to look less like investments and more like launch trajectories.

So let me ask you:

Does this market feel like we’re down in the riverbed, slogging through mud and rocks?

Or does it feel like we’re standing so high on the mountain that we’re running out of oxygen and about to hit the wall?

Maybe it’s not lack of oxygen at all. Maybe it’s Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall.

Either way, a wall is a wall.

The oxygen in this market is money. Specifically, retail money chasing the latest IPOs and momentum trades.

One very sage observer recently suggested that this Ball of Confusion market may remain completely whacko until the long-awaited SpaceX IPO is completed. The reasoning is simple. Depending on valuation assumptions, SpaceX is now being discussed in ranges approaching $1.75 trillion.

Any significant crack in the markets before, during, or after such a massive offering could trigger moves of an entirely different order of magnitude.

This past weekend was a three-day holiday, and I was surprised the TACO script wasn’t fully engaged. Frankly, it may be healthier to shut off the news feeds, ignore the text alerts, skip the videos, and simply watch the markets.

Watch the DJIA.

Watch the Ten-Year Treasury.

Watch what money is actually doing.

Beyond the Tekkies

While everyone is chasing AI, semiconductors, and the latest technology darling, a few other sectors have quietly started showing signs of life.

A couple of Mexican silver plays suddenly looked as if they had flashbulbs attached to them. Personally, I still consider Mexico a suspect jurisdiction until proven otherwise.

Instead, my attention has been drawn toward:

• Goliath Resources (GOT.V)
• Hydro One (H.TO)
• High Liner Foods (HLF.TO)
• Jamieson Wellness (JWEL.TO)

Not exactly the stocks dominating social media headlines.

Which may be precisely the point.

The Warning Sign Nobody Wants to Discuss

What could become genuinely concerning is that many equal-weighted indexes remain relatively flat.

The market averages look healthy because a handful of mega-cap names continue pulling the wagon. Remove those few leaders and the picture becomes considerably less impressive.

Meanwhile, some of the models that normally moderate parabolic moves are beginning to roll over.

The IPOs are the gasoline.

The weakening breadth is the match.

That combination deserves attention.

The Camel and the Straw

The question may no longer be if something breaks.

The question is when.

Fundamentally, a case can be made that portions of the U.S. economy resemble a “dead man walking.”

Friction continues to build throughout the system.

Consumers are feeling it.

A recent brake service on my vehicle came in roughly 30% above estimate because of supply-chain complications affecting the garage. On a $1,000 estimate, that’s a very visible overrun.

You notice it.

Unlike the gradual increase in the price of carrots, coffee, or Nutella.

The chickens eventually come home to roost. Unfortunately, they often arrive at the worst possible time—perhaps shortly after one of these highly anticipated IPOs fails to meet expectations.

What Separates Success from Failure?

Three things:

1. DYODD

Do Your Own Due Diligence.

No one cares more about your money than you do.

2. Patience

Wait for the indicators to align.

Not some of them.

All of them.

3. Decisiveness

Once your criteria are met, act.

Not emotionally.

Not impulsively.

Decisively.

Managing Your Dry Powder

Decide which sectors you want exposure to.

Decide which jurisdictions you trust.

Then assess your dry powder.

If your portfolio is properly positioned, cash reserves should generally remain below one-third of total holdings.

For example:

• Portfolio: $10,000
• Dry Powder: Maximum $3,000

One possible approach:

• One-third retained as cash
• One-third allocated to your highest-conviction opportunity
• One-third allocated to your second choice

If there isn’t a clear second choice, keep the remaining capital available for additional deployment into your primary position when the opportunity presents itself.

Without patience, gains are often limited.

Chase momentum blindly, and eventually you’ll get burned.

Remember:

With predators, if you run, you’re done.

Great Googa Mooga!

Well, what do you know?

It’s Friday.

The TACO effect appears to be fully operational once again, boosting the high-flyers, the Nifty Fifty, AI names, and virtually anything with a technology label attached to it.

Not much help for the rest of us.

Meanwhile:

• GOT.V
• H.TO
• HLF.TO
• JWEL.TO

continue doing what stocks used to do.

Quietly moving higher.

Imagine that.

Stocks Worth Watching

While scanning the Canadiansphere, I found several names showing positive price appreciation that may actually have underlying reasons supporting the move.

As always, investigate thoroughly before committing capital.

Current watch list:

• NAU.V
• ALDE.V
• CEI.V
• MTA.V
• AGMR.TO
• GG.V
• CFW.TO
• HNU.TO
• ARK.V
• NKE.TO
• AGAG.V

A reasonable spread across multiple sectors.

Pick the stories you understand.

Pick the jurisdictions you trust.

Accept that losses are part of speculation.

And prepare accordingly.

Final Thought

Markets are rarely rational.

Sometimes they are fearful.

Sometimes they are euphoric.

Right now they feel like a Ball of Confusion.

Stay patient.

Stay disciplined.

Keep some dry powder.

In a Ball of Confusion, the goal isn’t to predict every bounce—it’s to avoid becoming part of the bounce.

Stay patient.

Stay decisive.

DYODD.

— Denaliguide

Disclosure: The securities mentioned may be acquired, held, sold, or sold short by Denaliguide Summit Associates. All investments involve risk. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.