“THE COAST IS CLEAR!”

There are few phrases that soothe a speculator’s nerves like:
“The coast is clear.”

Those words promise smooth sailing right as you’re about to embark on a venture. This venture could hurt you badly if not done with care. And sometimes you find out pretty quickly whether that phrase was truth… or wishful thinking.

I pick a lot of stocks. Some work out beautifully. Some take a hammer to my confidence. And after a few too many blows to the head courtesy of Mr. Market, a question finally lodged itself between my ears:

“What am I planning for the stocks I buy after I buy them?”

Not why I like them. Not the story.
The plan.

So here goes.

**When the Coast Seems Clear**

Every now and then, you enter a trade that behaves exactly as you hoped. The trend is friendly, the movement is steady, and the progress feels like getting daily base hits. You accept that the stock is in an uptrend, and you allow the facts—not your euphoria—to guide you.

That’s when the phrase “the coast is clear” seems to be true.
But here’s the twist:

Even when everything goes right, you still need a plan.

Because without an exit strategy, even winning trades can turn into headaches. Being right isn’t enough—you need to know what you’re doing with that correctness.

When the Coast Is Foggy, Swampy, or Full of Crocs

Then there are the trades that look promising but never deliver.

The ones where you say things like:

“It has potential.”
“It might turn around.”
“Maybe next week.”

That kind of thinking is hope.
And hope is the most expensive tool in the toolbox if it’s all you’re relying on.

You enter early without a written plan. You assume the best. Then the stock cuts itself in half within weeks, repaying your faith. Now you’re stuck asking two painful questions:

How long do I wait for improvement?
At what point do I admit error and exit?

If you didn’t decide those things before buying, you’re now making decisions under stress—never ideal.

The Awkward Middle: Not Winning, Not Losing

Some trades sit right on the horns of the dilemma.
Not rising enough to justify excitement.
Not falling enough to justify panic.

Just drifting.

This is where measurable expectations help. You can look at average movement, recent performance, or your own time-based criteria and say:

“If this position can’t show signs of life within X days or weeks, I reevaluate.”

That simple discipline keeps you from babysitting weak trades indefinitely.

Why Bother With All of This?

Because getting into a trade is easy.
Getting out—with your money intact—is the hard part.

And that’s why you must ask:

Was this according to my plan?
Did I even have a plan?
Did I buy it simply because it felt like the “coast was clear”?

Too often, “the coast is clear” is just code for:
“I didn’t think this through.”

I won’t give you quotes from Sun Tzu or fictional generals sitting in tents. It all boils down to the simplest of questions:

What are you going to do with the fish once it’s in the boat?

Successful speculation in anything—rice, copper, coal, stocks—requires reverse engineering your plan:

What must be true before you buy?
What must happen after you buy to justify holding?
When do you take profit?
When do you accept a mistake and walk away?

And perhaps most importantly:

Is the coast actually clear, or are you just hoping it is?

The Transaction Sheet: Your Lifeline

You can simplify everything by creating a Transaction Sheet you fill out before you make the trade.

The two most important pieces:

1. WHY BUY?

Your thesis, in plain language.
If you can’t explain it quickly, you likely don’t understand it well enough.

2. WHY or WHEN TO EXIT?

Decide this before emotions get involved.
It will save your wallet and your sanity.

Then add the housekeeping:

Stock name
Shares
Price in
Price out
Profit target
Maximum acceptable loss
Time expectations
Any red flags to watch

Those boring details? They are the backbone of successful speculation.

Your Four Allies in the Market

When the noise gets loud and the market gets fast, these are the friends you can rely on:

WHY’s — Why you enter, why you exit
WHEN — Timing and conditions
DUE DILIGENCE — The work you did before risking a dime
HOUSEKEEPING — The numbers that keep you honest

Get those right, and suddenly the coast isn’t just “clear”—
it’s mapped, measured, and monitored.

And that’s the difference between guessing…
and surviving long enough to succeed.

From the Denali ridges to the market edges—step sure, think clean, trade wise.

Nick aka Denaliguide

Denaliguide Summit

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