First Things First: Gold, Markets, and the Shifting Global Order

We’re living through the dismantling of the Westphalian system—the 17th century-old framework that shaped how nation-states operated, (which laid the foundation of modern state framework in Europe, especially in the financial realm. As that structure crumbles, commodities are starting to outshine financial instruments. It’s no surprise to those who’ve been watching: the system had to change or risk disintegration. The signs have been there since at least 2000, with the 2007–2008 financial crisis acting as a glaring red flag.

That crash wasn’t just a market hiccup. It was a generational collapse and a signal of massive tectonic shifts. Only a few recognized these shifts at the time. While pundits called it a “healthy rotation,” it was anything but. It ushered in the end of Western financial dominance. New trends emerged, including the BRICS alliance, de-dollarization, and serious challenges to the SWIFT system.

Gold’s Return to the Spotlight

Gold was long suppressed by complex market mechanisms. It started to break free thanks in part to new BIS (Bank for International Settlements) rules on collateral. Now central banks are engaged in the global arena. They are scrambling for gold. They are also trying to set prices favorable to their positions.

A recent coordinated short attack tried to shake the market. It took gold down from $3,130 to $2,965 (USD) between April 2 and April 7. A $165 dip can rattle a few weak hands. Nevertheless, it hasn’t changed the long-term fundamentals. These fundamentals have powered this gold bull since 1971. Price suppression was a band-aid—and now that it’s being ripped off, it’s taking some skin with it.

Big Players, Bigger Moves

The massive profits in mining have created an interesting dilemma. Production costs are under $900/oz. Prices are soaring. The top five producers, like those listed in the HUI, XAU, and GDX, are making serious money. We’re talking $2,000 gross profit per ounce and 16 million ounces total—roughly $320 billion in value. That’s enough to buy companies like Newmont and Barrick multiple times over.

And with market caps sitting around $70 billion combined, these mining majors could go on a spree—snapping up competitors like Agnico Eagle or smaller up-and-comers like Snowline (SGD.V). Even Pan American Silver, which now owns Yamana, is in the mix with a modest $10 billion cap. Bottom line: everything is up for grabs, and the gold rush is far from over.

Looking Ahead to $4,200 Gold?

If gold hits $4,200 this summer—and that’s not out of the question—the acquisition game will turn feverish. Bull markets are rarely rational. As bidding wars heat up, ask yourself: What’s your price? What would make you sell?

Remember the old adage: Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Know your plan and stick to it—don’t get shaken out by noise.

Stock Picks and Watch List

Before daylight savings time (March 9), these stocks were on the radar:

• KGC (Kinross)
• GTWO.TO (G2 Goldfields)
• OMG.V (Omai Gold Mines)
• TKO.TO (Taseko Mines)
• CBR.V (Cabral Gold)
• WPG.V (Western Pacific)
• SNOWLINE (SGD.V)
• SNG.V (Snowline Gold)

From tiny explorers to full-fledged producers, here’s a breakdown of current plays in the gold and silver mining space:

I. Developer

• CNL Mining (CNL.TO) – Based in Colombia

II. Producer

• Monument Mining (MMY.V) – Operations in Malaysia and Australia

III. Wild Card

• BENZ Mining (BZ.V) – Projects in Quebec and Australia

Jurisdictions range from Quebec to Southeast Asia. For now, they look stable enough to hold risk at bay. How ever, nothing in this arena is ever guaranteed.

The Global Stage: A Jigsaw Puzzle in Motion

Europe is not exactly a calm place right now. The EU’s unity is cracking, with Germany flirting with dissent and countries like Hungary, Italy, and Austria making waves. Election results are becoming inconvenient for the elites, and that has them reaching for control levers.

On the global chessboard, the U.S. and Russia are in talks—a development that’s got smaller players (and their pundits) freaking out. The threat of nuclear war from Ukraine’s President Zelensky seems to be on pause. Yet, the Middle East continues to boil. A new U.S. cabinet has entered the scene, adding to the uncertainty.

Africa, once seen as off-limits, is now active again. Coups and conflicts are flaring up. Tragically, these events are costing lives as geopolitical pieces get shuffled.

Final Thoughts

We’re swimming in a sea of black swans and red herrings. It’s easy to get lost in the chaos. Sometimes the best thing you can do is step back and breathe. Wait for the pieces to fall into place, like a jigsaw puzzle slowly revealing its image.

This market isn’t for the faint of heart. It’s exciting, it’s confusing, and it’s moving fast. So do your own due diligence. Be wise, be patient, and remember: in this game, losses are part of the deal.

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Thank you for reading.

— Denaliguide

“Disclaimer Denaliguide and/or associates hold positions—long or short—in any of the stocks mentioned and are opinions only “